Investors fear ‘commercial crunch’

Investors fear ‘commercial crunch’

Monday, May 19, 2008

A trio of Industry insiders has forecast a grim future for the commercial property sector…

Robert Peto, chairman of DTZ UK, Robert Whitton, chairman of acquisitive asset manager Rom Capital, and Robin Priest, a real estate partner at corporate adviser Deloitte, all believe that commercial property will be worth 30 per cent less in December than it was last August.

Mr Priest explained: "Prices are probably 20 per cent down already, so 30 per cent is the minimum. In fact, that would be a good result comparative to where the market is going."

Mr Peto added: “Offices and shopping centres that have tenants on short-term leases are particularly susceptible to a decline in value as they cannot provide a guaranteed income stream for the property's owner for the next few years. The full extent of the market problem has not been ‘mapped in’ to current valuations".

Mr Whitton predicted: “Property valuations will not start to pick up until the fourth quarter of next year, and I subscribe to the view that things will get worse before they get better”.

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